Over the past two days the counting has continued at the AEC and none of the candidates has the 50% plus one vote required to be declared elected. As Di Bell predicted weeks ago, this election will go down to preferences and we are yet to see how closely electors followed the how to vote cards of the candidates.
One of the striking features of the count is the low turn out. In the Federal Election of November 2007, the turnout was 95.88%. The AEC virtual tally room shows this year, in an electorate with an enrolment of 97, 583, a turnout of only 78.76%.
If over 20% of the electorate didn’t vote, we might ask how representative this vote really is? Why did more than one on five electors not vote? To be sure some didn’t know they had to vote. “Do I have to vote?” was the most frequently asked question on the campaign trail. One wonders what these electors thought all the corflutes were doing on the stobie poles along the roads of Mayo?
Some electors chose not the vote. We certainly heard that people were frustrated that they had to return to the ballot box so soon after the last Federal election. We also heard that people were angry that Labor was not fielding a candidate.
A further feature of this election is the high Informal vote which according to the AEC virtual tally room stands at 4.70%. By comparison in 2007, the Informal vote was 2.76% and that was a drop of 1.88% from the previous election in 2004. The large field may have confused some electors. Some may have chosen to vote informal. Others may have been confused by how to vote cards.
What does the low turnout and high informal vote say about the state of civics education in Australia? What are the consequences for representative democracy?
If we add the Informal vote and the no-show voters together, we have an election being decided on the basis of less than 75% of the electorate. Is this what compulsory voting looks like in 2008?
Di Bell and her kitchen cabinet will be meeting tonight to discuss the election, lessons learned and plans for the future.
The election is far from over. The Liberal candidate may have claimed victory but the count continues. On Sunday September 7, the pre-polling numbers were posted on the AEC virtual tally room. Di Bell received 17.63% of the prepolling vote – a good result. This brought her tally to 16.74% of the vote counted. The Greens were at 21.85% and the Liberals at 40.54%. At 11.43%, Family First was clearly not the “third horse” in the race as had been so solidly promoted by much of the media. How could Christopher Pyne have been so wrong?
The media continued to report the statistics according to the two party preferred model, but Di Bell was quick to point out on 891 and 5AA and in other interviews, that there were three candidates in contention. Taken together, the Greens and Di held 38.59% of the vote and the Liberals 40.54% at the close of counting on Sunday. Preferences will be important and the candidates holding the primary votes that might be distributed have not preferenced the Liberal candidate.
Postal votes were counted today and once again Di did well, particularly as postal voted were cast before her campaign had begun and postal votes traditionally favour the sitting member (in this case party).
This is how it looked at the close of play on September 8.
Liberal 41.02%
Greens 21.49%
Di Bell 16.47%
The preferences are yet to be factored in for Di. To whom will the 11.42% of Family First preferences flow?
With just under 70% of the electorate’s votes now counted, there are 3 strong contenders for the Seat of Mayo: a liberal, a green and Di Bell! No one has 50% +1 vote: Mayo is now a “marginal” seat.
We are still awaiting pre-polling votes and postal votes — which could mean another 15-20% additional returns. Despite news reports to the contrary this is an election that will be decided on preferences! And those have yet to be counted!
It was a beautiful day across Mayo today – clear and warm and sunny! Di cast her vote in Strathalbyn at 8:45am, and then spent the day crisscrossing the electorate in the trusty campaign ute. There were a lot of excited conversations and hard decisions. Nick handed out how-to-vote cards with Di at Bridgewater, Stirling and Aldgate. The entire campaign team has retired back to the Bowling Club in Mt Barker to watch the vote come in on the internet at the AEC virtual tally room.
Thanks to everyone who helped on the campaign today and who voted for Di!
What a glorious morning! Clear sky, warm sun, Spring is coming. The team was up bright and early, the packs for the booth were ready, the routes were all marked out. Di’s itinerary was finalised. The ute was off to Mt Barker with Di while other members of the team were at Mt Barker, Victor Harbor and Stirling for prepolling. The most frequently asked question: Is voting compulsory?
Prepolling has been quite an experience and we will have more to say of the irregularities at a future date. This week it has been us, the Liberals and Family First there in person to hand out “How to Vote” cards and the Greens have had a stand with their material. Mostly everyone has been collegial, swapping amusing anecdotes and some friendships have formed. Today there was some vandalism of materials at one booth and our volunteers were denied access to toilets by local storekeepers of a different political hue: a good argument for maintaining public infrastructure and not privatising essential services. Fortunately, there are still public facilities in most country towns.
Di was greeted warmly by electors in Barker: many had already voted and told her how pleased they were to have an intelligent woman running for Mayo. A number of Liberal voters told her they were voting for her because they approved of her stand and campaign. Everyone likes the ute.
Channel 9 and Channel 7 arrived but the Liberal candidate was no where to be seen. Di talked with the reporters who waited a while and then relocated at the office of the candidate. Di later talked to Channel 2.
At 6.00pm we packed up our goods and headed for Milang where the team was still hard at work with schedules for tomorrow. Pizza for tea while we watched Stateline. Go team! Go Di! What great coverage. There was Di in her studio with her latest book, on her beach pointing out the water levels and dead fresh water mussels, and talking about the campaign. Dr Haydon Manning offered his analysis of the election: too close to call but there could be an upset. It will all be about preferences.
We missed the item of SBS but caught a glimpse of Channel 7.
Di and her team and all the volunteers will gather at the Mt Barker Bowling Club from 6.00pm onwards. Join us and help us celebrate a remarkable campaign.
There was frost on the windshield this morning, and Di started the day on Fran Kelly’s Breakfast show on ABC’s Radio National with a story about the Mayo by-election. Then Di spent the morning at the Strathalbyn Stock and Fish Market, in the Market Shed and walking down the Main Street. Di talked to all kinds of people, including local merchants, shoppers and tourists.
How-to-vote cards were passed out at pre-polling stations in Stirling, Mt Barker and Victa – there were lots of good conversations, questions and interesting encounters! People talked about wanting decent facilities for young people and kids that are within their communities and within easy reach. How you get around, efficiently and cheaply, was on everyone’s minds too.
The trusty campaign ute made landfall in Strathablyn and Victa before coming to a rest in Milang. The ute also made the front cover of free monthly, the Yankalilla Regional News – it looked very flash! And the final corflutes went up in the north-western corner of the electorate – from Victa to Mt Compass and many points in between. And a new video with John Schumann went up on YouTube:
At 7:30pm, the federal candidates for the seat of Mayo gathered at the old Aldgate Memorial Hall to debate and discuss climate change and the environment, social justice, and human rights. The debate was sponsored by Adelaide Hills Climate Change Action Group and moderated by Dr Haydon Manning (Flinders University). The format was simple: 8 minutes for each candidate to lay out their positions and then questions from the voters.
There were 8 candidates present and 8 strong position statements got made. Di talked about the ways in which social justice can frame our understanding of environmental issues (read Di’s speech here). There were lots of questions – how would an independent influence parliament and policy? What can we do about sustainability and population growth? How can we better utilise public transportation and rail systems? There were several moments of levity and wonderful insight from Malcom King and his dog, Molly. And we all missed hearing from Bob Day, Jamie Briggs, and Mary Brewerton who were not in attendance.
After a wonderfully thorough description of how the preferential voting system actually works, Haydon Manning also made a prediction for Saturday: the Mayo election will be decided on preferences. Dr Manning believes that the Liberal Party candidate, Jamie Briggs will not get the 50% plus one vote needed to win outright and that the Green’s candidate Lynton Vonow and our own Di Bell will give him a run for his money!
Afterwards, there was tea, coffee and biscuits and lots of conversation as candidates and votes milled around; then it was the long and winding road back down to Finniss.
Wednesday dawned cold and frosty on the Finniss River but the water level is up. We are only half way through the day and already it has been a busy one. More corflutes went up in Strathalbyn first thing, and then Di made the drive to Adelaide for a book launch at the Kerry Packer Civic Gallery to mark Indigenous Literacy Day. It was a lovely event with readings from “Kungun Ngarrindjeri Miminar Yunnan” – a new book from Spinifex Press – singing and plenty of pies and sushi for lunch – very cosmopolitan!
Then it was a quick dash across the Torrens to meet up with John Schumann (lead singer of Redgum and the only man to come close to unseating Alexander Downer back in 1998) at St Anne’s College in North Adelaide. Hanging in the lovely eating hall is a portrait of Dr. Helen Mayo, the founder of St. Anne’s College and also the electorate’s name-sake. John said Dr. Mayo reminded him of his grandmother. The ABC was in attendance and there was a lively conversation! John is very excited about Di’s campaign and says she is Mayo’s best hope! He reckons Canberra needs a person like her – smart, insightful, courageous and independently minded!
Then it was a quick dash back to Finniss for a cup of tea before setting off to the Mayo Federal Candidates Forum at the Aldgate Memorial Hall at 7pm. Perhaps we will see you there!
John Schumann says Di Bell can and should win. Christopher Pyne is not in favour of an Independent for Mayo. Well have a look at what others are saying:
