Independent Di Bell and Greens candidate Lynton Vonow now hold more votes between them than Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs.
Tally at 3.30pm Thursday Sept 18, 2008
Vonow 18,640
Briggs 31,545
Day 9,527
Bell 14,548
“The idea behind preferential voting,” says Professor Diane Bell, “is that every vote counts. If your first preference is eliminated, your second is counted.”
Di Bell, who ran as an Independent in the Mayo by-election of September 6, 2008 has been watching the vote counting with keen interest. “As a candidate I can’t be in the tally room and have to rely on the AEC online virtual tally room or feed back from scrutineers,” she says. “The results are fascinating.”
It may surprise the Australian population to learn that the Liberal candidate, Mr Jamie Briggs, has not yet won. He garnered 41.27% of first preferences and thus far with some 896 added votes has not done well out of preferences of the seven candidates eliminated thus far [in order of elimination King IND, Keizer ON, Barons CCE, Castrique DEM, McCabe DLP, Spragg IND, Brewerton IND].
On the other hand, Greens candidate Lynton Vonow has somewhere in the vicinity of 2,790 Independent Di Bell 2,465 and Family First Bob Bob Day, 1060.
In part the confusion has been that existing models for analysing the vote employ a two party preferred model. In the case of Mayo, this has become a two candidate preferred model. Thus it is forecast that Mr Briggs has 53.06% of the vote and on September 6 he claimed victory. The media stopped reporting the election.
“But,” says Bell, “if every vote counts, shouldn’t we pay attention to how votes are distributed? The Mayo by-election is not your standard two horse race.” Together Vonow and Bell hold 33,188 and their preferences are likely to flow substantially to each other.
“It will come down to where Family First preferences go,” says Bell and the Liberal candidate will need to get a much higher percent of them that he has from other candidates.
Still counting.
